Fluorite Fluctuates at Highs, Dominating Costs; Aluminum Fluoride Prices Still Have Potential to Rise Despite Enterprises Being Under Pressure [SMM Fluoride Salt Weekly Review]

SMM October 23 News:

This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on fulfilling orders, with moderate market activity and stable prices. SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,060-10,350 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 7,400-9,500 yuan/mt.

From the raw material perspective, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder mostly ranged from 3,500-3,700 yuan/mt. Since October, fluorite prices rose sharply, driven by cost support and supply-demand mismatch. However, as prices climbed to highs, purchase willingness among downstream enterprises gradually weakened, market activity declined noticeably, and prices showed slight softening. Nevertheless, approaching winter has heightened expectations of tight supply, providing some bottom support for fluorite prices. SMM expects fluorite prices to fluctuate at highs in the short term, with the medium and long-term upward trend remaining unchanged. Aluminum hydroxide prices continued to weaken this week, with the SMM weighted average price at 1,813 yuan/mt, down 1.36% WoW. The sulfuric acid market showed relatively strong performance, supported by tightening supply and cost factors. Overall, despite varying trends among raw materials, the overall cost for aluminum fluoride remains high.

Supply side, constrained profit margins and high production costs have reduced production enthusiasm among aluminum fluoride enterprises. Additionally, low enterprise inventory limits overall market supply flexibility. Demand side, although operating aluminum capacity increased slightly, demand remains primarily rigid, providing limited boost to the market.

Brief Review: This week, the aluminum fluoride raw material market continued its divergent pattern. Despite differing raw material trends, the core fundamental of high operating costs remains unchanged. Affected by high cost adjustments, enterprise profitability is poor and operating enthusiasm has declined, while demand side performance is mediocre. However, supported by persistently high fluorite and sulfuric acid prices, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to have some further upside potential.